A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
